CA Sea Change Atlas
CA Sea Change Atlas
County Profiles San Joaquin County
Data as of 2026-10-22

Sea level rise · San Joaquin County, CA

Sea level rise

Visualize sea level rise exposure with this snapshot. Consider incorporating this data into all community planning strategies. In many communities, rising sea levels are already increasing the impacts of high tide flooding and storm surge events.

Projections for the Port Chicago tide gauge, assigned to San Joaquin County · Exposure at 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 ft above MHHW

In this profile

  1. People at Risk 01
  2. Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services 02
  3. Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan 03
  4. Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done 04
  5. When Is the Time to Act? Now! 05
  6. Digging Deeper 06
  7. About this data 07

People at Risk

Rising population numbers exacerbate potential flooding risk; impacts can be even greater when social vulnerability factors (age, income, capabilities) are involved, as these citizens may not be able to adequately prepare and respond.

View on map for People at Risk: opens the sea level rise layer and population density for San Joaquin County in a new tab

9.4%

(74,841 people) of San Joaquin County’s total population lives in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. As is already the case in many parts of the country, these areas are the first to experience impacts.

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Population: 2 ft 74,841, 4 ft 104,973, 6 ft 137,889, 8 ft 174,597, 10 ft 213,843. Aged 65 and over: 2 ft 11,212, 4 ft 15,483, 6 ft 20,296, 8 ft 25,243, 10 ft 29,929. Below the poverty line: 2 ft 7,869, 4 ft 11,597, 6 ft 16,320, 8 ft 20,776, 10 ft 26,054. 0 50k 100k 150k 200k 250k 74,841 Population 11,212 Aged 65 and over 7,869 Below the poverty line
Sea level rise
2 ft

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

Category2 ft4 ft6 ft8 ft10 ft
Population, ocean-connected4851,19979,074137,130169,153
Population, including low-lying areas74,841104,973137,889174,597213,843
Aged 65 and over, ocean-connected9822712,99221,68825,973
Aged 65 and over, including low-lying areas11,21215,48320,29625,24329,929
Below the poverty line, ocean-connected6614110,16017,73622,545
Below the poverty line, including low-lying areas7,86911,59716,32020,77626,054
Sources Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024) (2024) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services

Fire and police stations. Hospitals. Shelters. These facilities play a central role in response and recovery. Understanding future exposure can help reduce damages and the conditions that make these services unavailable.

View on map for Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services: opens the sea level rise layer and critical facilities for San Joaquin County in a new tab

3.6%

(11 of 309 facilities) of San Joaquin County’s critical facilities are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. These areas are the first to experience impacts.

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Schools (234 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (8 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (14 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 17 exposed (31 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 34 exposed (42 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 45 exposed (54 with low-lying areas). Police stations (8 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas). Fire stations (58 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 2 exposed (4 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 7 exposed (8 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 9 exposed (11 with low-lying areas). Medical facilities (9 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas). 0 50 100 150 200 8 0 3 0 Number of facilities of each type Schools Police stations Fire stations Medical facilities
Sea level rise
2 ft

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryTotal2 ft exposed4 ft exposed6 ft exposed8 ft exposed10 ft exposed
Schools23400173445
Schools, including low-lying areas234814314254
Police stations800001
Police stations, including low-lying areas800001
Fire stations5800279
Fire stations, including low-lying areas58334811
Medical facilities900001
Medical facilities, including low-lying areas900001
Sources USGS National Structures Dataset (2026-06-03) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan

Flood-related losses of services, revenues, and salaries can hit a community hard.

View on map for Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan: opens the sea level rise layer and jobs density for San Joaquin County in a new tab

6.8%

(19,413 jobs) of San Joaquin County’s jobs are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise.

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Ocean-connected 301 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 19,112 jobs. 4 ft: Ocean-connected 485 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 24,371 jobs. 6 ft: Ocean-connected 20,853 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 11,778 jobs. 8 ft: Ocean-connected 39,199 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 8,266 jobs. 10 ft: Ocean-connected 65,018 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 9,369 jobs. Total jobs 0 20k 40k 60k 19,413 24,856 32,631 47,465 74,387 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryOcean-connectedAdditional, in low-lying areas
2 ft301 jobs19,112 jobs
4 ft485 jobs24,371 jobs
6 ft20,853 jobs11,778 jobs
8 ft39,199 jobs8,266 jobs
10 ft65,018 jobs9,369 jobs
Sources LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics (2023) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done

Make it a goal: more natural areas (wetlands, forests, parks, dunes, etc.) to absorb floodwaters and protect the community, and less development in flood-prone areas. Consider not only today’s floodplain, but also the floodplain extent projected for the future.

View on map for Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done: opens the sea level rise layer and natural areas for San Joaquin County in a new tab

4.0%

(11.1 of 280 square miles) of the land inundated in San Joaquin County at 2 ft of sea level rise would be natural: wetland or upland.

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Wetlands 9.7 sq mi, Upland 1.4 sq mi, Other 268.9 sq mi. 4 ft: Wetlands 10.3 sq mi, Upland 1.6 sq mi, Other 291.6 sq mi. 6 ft: Wetlands 10.7 sq mi, Upland 1.9 sq mi, Other 316.5 sq mi. 8 ft: Wetlands 11 sq mi, Upland 2.1 sq mi, Other 337.9 sq mi. 10 ft: Wetlands 11.3 sq mi, Upland 2.3 sq mi, Other 356.6 sq mi. % natural 0 100 200 300 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7%Square miles inundated 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryWetlandsUplandOther
2 ft9.7 sq mi1.4 sq mi268.9 sq mi
4 ft10.3 sq mi1.6 sq mi291.6 sq mi
6 ft10.7 sq mi1.9 sq mi316.5 sq mi
8 ft11 sq mi2.1 sq mi337.9 sq mi
10 ft11.3 sq mi2.3 sq mi356.6 sq mi
Sources NOAA C-CAP regional land cover (1996–2021) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

When Is the Time to Act? Now!

Because a number of factors are involved, sea level rise projections are often expressed as scenarios. For projects involving structures with a long lifespan or where a loss would be catastrophic (power plants, ports, hospitals), the higher sea level rise scenarios should be considered. For projects with a shorter lifespan (bike paths, golf courses, parks), lower sea level rise scenarios may be appropriate.

Projections at the Port Chicago gauge, by scenario

Feet above 2000, by year

Projected sea level rise at the Port Chicago tide gauge, 2000 to 2150, by scenario Feet of sea level rise above 2000, for the Intermediate, Intermediate-High and High scenarios. The year each increment is reached is in the table. 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft 2 ft Intermediate reaches 2 ft in 2083 Intermediate-High reaches 2 ft in 2067 High reaches 2 ft in 2060
Sea level rise
2 ft

2 ft is reached in:

Intermediate
2083
Intermediate-High
2067
High
2060

Feet above 2000, in 2050 and 2100

Projected sea level rise at the Port Chicago tide gauge in 2050 and 2100, by scenario Feet above 2000. 2050: Intermediate 0.8¤ ft, Intermediate-High 1.0 ft, High 1.3 ft. 2100: Intermediate 3.1 ft, Intermediate-High 4.8 ft, High 6.5 ft. 0 2 4 6 8 0.8¤ 1.0 1.3 2050 3.1 4.8 6.5 2100

¤ Under 1 ft, the lowest level the map shows.

Year each increment is reached

Sea level riseIntermediateIntermediate-HighHigh
2 ft208320672060
4 ft211320922079
6 ft215021152096
8 ftafter 215021482112
10 ftafter 2150after 21502131
Sources California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 2 (2024)

Digging Deeper

Go further with San Joaquin County's sea level rise in the atlas's other tools.

See San Joaquin County on the map

Opens the map on the county, highlighted, with the sea level rise layer switched on.

Compare the flood and sea level rise resources

Explore descriptions fo the different resources available, including those listed in the OPC guidance.

About this data

Data, methods and citation

Snapshot
2026-10-22 · all snapshots
Methodology
Version 1 · what changed
Tide gauge
Port Chicago (OPC 2024, Appendix 2)
Scenarios
Intermediate, Intermediate-High, High

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Recommended citation

California Sea Change Atlas. (2026, October 22). San Joaquin County coastal county profile: Sea level rise. https://seachangeatlas.org/county-profiles/county/san-joaquin/2026-10-22/sea-level-rise/

SourcePeriod coveredRetrieved
Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024)20242026-10-22
Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb)20202026-10-22
NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents20262026-10-22
USGS National Structures Dataset2026-06-032026-10-22
LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics20232026-10-22
NOAA C-CAP regional land cover1996-01-01 to 2021-12-312026-10-22
California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 220242026-10-22