CA Sea Change Atlas
CA Sea Change Atlas
County Profiles San Francisco County
Snapshot 2026-09-24 Data as of 2026-09-24

Sea level rise · San Francisco County, CA

Sea level rise

Visualize sea level rise exposure with this snapshot. Consider incorporating this data into all community planning strategies. In many communities, rising sea levels are already increasing the impacts of high tide flooding and storm surge events.

Projections for the San Francisco tide gauge, assigned to San Francisco County · Exposure at 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 ft above MHHW

This is the 2026-09-24 snapshot. See the current profile.

In this profile

  1. People at Risk 01
  2. Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services 02
  3. Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan 03
  4. Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done 04
  5. When Is the Time to Act? Now! 05
  6. Digging Deeper 06
  7. About this data 07

People at Risk

Rising population numbers exacerbate potential flooding risk; impacts can be even greater when social vulnerability factors (age, income, capabilities) are involved, as these citizens may not be able to adequately prepare and respond.

View on map for People at Risk: opens the sea level rise layer and population density for San Francisco County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

0.2%

(1,895 people) of San Francisco County’s total population lives in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. As is already the case in many parts of the country, these areas are the first to experience impacts.

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Population: 2 ft 1,895, 4 ft 5,047, 6 ft 17,823, 8 ft 27,572, 10 ft 36,949. Aged 65 and over: 2 ft 140, 4 ft 352, 6 ft 1,766, 8 ft 2,960, 10 ft 4,268. Below the poverty line: 2 ft 343, 4 ft 790, 6 ft 2,070, 8 ft 3,215, 10 ft 4,205. 0 10k 20k 30k 40k 1,895 Population 140 Aged 65 and over 343 Below the poverty line
Sea level rise
2 ft

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

Category2 ft4 ft6 ft8 ft10 ft
Population, ocean-connected9403,18017,68527,56136,907
Population, including low-lying areas1,8955,04717,82327,57236,949
Aged 65 and over, ocean-connected1041991,7522,9594,266
Aged 65 and over, including low-lying areas1403521,7662,9604,268
Below the poverty line, ocean-connected1236562,0493,2144,203
Below the poverty line, including low-lying areas3437902,0703,2154,205
Sources Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024) (2024) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services

Fire and police stations. Hospitals. Shelters. These facilities play a central role in response and recovery. Understanding future exposure can help reduce damages and the conditions that make these services unavailable.

View on map for Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services: opens the sea level rise layer and critical facilities for San Francisco County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

0%

(0 of 274 facilities) of San Francisco County’s critical facilities are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. These areas are the first to experience impacts.

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Schools (204 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 3 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 3 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 4 exposed (4 with low-lying areas). Police stations (12 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas). Fire stations (45 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 5 exposed (5 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 8 exposed (8 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 9 exposed (9 with low-lying areas). Medical facilities (13 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas). 0 50 100 150 200 0 0 0 0 Number of facilities of each type Schools Police stations Fire stations Medical facilities
Sea level rise
2 ft

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryTotal2 ft exposed4 ft exposed6 ft exposed8 ft exposed10 ft exposed
Schools20400334
Schools, including low-lying areas20400334
Police stations1200111
Police stations, including low-lying areas1200111
Fire stations4500589
Fire stations, including low-lying areas4500589
Medical facilities1300000
Medical facilities, including low-lying areas1300000
Sources USGS National Structures Dataset (2026-04-06) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan

Flood-related losses of services, revenues, and salaries can hit a community hard.

View on map for Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan: opens the sea level rise layer and jobs density for San Francisco County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

0.4%

(3,107 jobs) of San Francisco County’s jobs are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise.

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Ocean-connected 2,385 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 722 jobs. 4 ft: Ocean-connected 4,451 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 3,869 jobs. 6 ft: Ocean-connected 73,478 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 206 jobs. 8 ft: Ocean-connected 120,782 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 44 jobs. 10 ft: Ocean-connected 169,907 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 165 jobs. Total jobs 0 50k 100k 150k 3,107 8,320 73,684 120,826 170,072 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryOcean-connectedAdditional, in low-lying areas
2 ft2,385 jobs722 jobs
4 ft4,451 jobs3,869 jobs
6 ft73,478 jobs206 jobs
8 ft120,782 jobs44 jobs
10 ft169,907 jobs165 jobs
Sources LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics (2023) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done

Make it a goal: more natural areas (wetlands, forests, parks, dunes, etc.) to absorb floodwaters and protect the community, and less development in flood-prone areas. Consider not only today’s floodplain, but also the floodplain extent projected for the future.

View on map for Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done: opens the sea level rise layer and natural areas for San Francisco County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

0%

(0 of 0.6 square miles) of the land inundated in San Francisco County at 2 ft of sea level rise would be natural: wetland or upland.

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Wetlands 0 sq mi, Upland 0 sq mi, Other 0.6 sq mi. 4 ft: Wetlands 0 sq mi, Upland 0 sq mi, Other 1.1 sq mi. 6 ft: Wetlands 0 sq mi, Upland 0 sq mi, Other 2.9 sq mi. 8 ft: Wetlands 0 sq mi, Upland 0 sq mi, Other 4.1 sq mi. 10 ft: Wetlands 0 sq mi, Upland 0 sq mi, Other 5 sq mi. % natural 0 1 2 3 4 5 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Square miles inundated 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryWetlandsUplandOther
2 ft0 sq mi0 sq mi0.6 sq mi
4 ft0 sq mi0 sq mi1.1 sq mi
6 ft0 sq mi0 sq mi2.9 sq mi
8 ft0 sq mi0 sq mi4.1 sq mi
10 ft0 sq mi0 sq mi5 sq mi
Sources NOAA C-CAP regional land cover (1996–2021) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

When Is the Time to Act? Now!

Because a number of factors are involved, sea level rise projections are often expressed as scenarios. For projects involving structures with a long lifespan or where a loss would be catastrophic (power plants, ports, hospitals), the higher sea level rise scenarios should be considered. For projects with a shorter lifespan (bike paths, golf courses, parks), lower sea level rise scenarios may be appropriate.

Projections at the San Francisco gauge, by scenario

Feet above 2000, by year

Projected sea level rise at the San Francisco tide gauge, 2000 to 2150, by scenario Feet of sea level rise above 2000, for the Intermediate, Intermediate-High and High scenarios. The year each increment is reached is in the table. 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft 2 ft Intermediate reaches 2 ft in 2083 Intermediate-High reaches 2 ft in 2067 High reaches 2 ft in 2060
Sea level rise
2 ft

2 ft is reached in:

Intermediate
2083
Intermediate-High
2067
High
2060

Feet above 2000, in 2050 and 2100

Projected sea level rise at the San Francisco tide gauge in 2050 and 2100, by scenario Feet above 2000. 2050: Intermediate 0.8¤ ft, Intermediate-High 1.0 ft, High 1.3 ft. 2100: Intermediate 3.1 ft, Intermediate-High 4.8 ft, High 6.5 ft. 0 2 4 6 8 0.8¤ 1.0 1.3 2050 3.1 4.8 6.5 2100

¤ Under 1 ft, the lowest level the map shows.

Year each increment is reached

Sea level riseIntermediateIntermediate-HighHigh
2 ft208320672060
4 ft211320922079
6 ft215021152096
8 ftafter 215021482112
10 ftafter 2150after 21502131
Sources California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 2 (2024)

Digging Deeper

Go further with San Francisco County's sea level rise in the atlas's other tools.

See San Francisco County on the map

Opens the map on the county, highlighted, with the sea level rise layer switched on.

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

Compare the flood and sea level rise resources

Explore descriptions fo the different resources available, including those listed in the OPC guidance.

About this data

Data, methods and citation

Snapshot
2026-09-24 · all snapshots
Methodology
Version 1 · what changed
Tide gauge
San Francisco (OPC 2024, Appendix 2)
Scenarios
Intermediate, Intermediate-High, High

Report a problem with these figures

Recommended citation

California Sea Change Atlas. (2026, September 24). San Francisco County coastal county profile: Sea level rise. https://seachangeatlas.org/county-profiles/county/san-francisco/2026-09-24/sea-level-rise/

SourcePeriod coveredRetrieved
Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024)20242026-09-24
Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb)20202026-09-24
NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents20262026-09-24
USGS National Structures Dataset2026-04-062026-09-24
LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics20232026-09-24
NOAA C-CAP regional land cover1996-01-01 to 2021-12-312026-10-21
California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 220242026-09-24