CA Sea Change Atlas
CA Sea Change Atlas
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Snapshot 2026-10-22 Data as of 2026-10-22

Sea level rise · Orange County, CA

Sea level rise

Visualize sea level rise exposure with this snapshot. Consider incorporating this data into all community planning strategies. In many communities, rising sea levels are already increasing the impacts of high tide flooding and storm surge events.

Projections for the Los Angeles tide gauge, assigned to Orange County · Exposure at 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 ft above MHHW

This is the 2026-10-22 snapshot. See the current profile.

In this profile

  1. People at Risk 01
  2. Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services 02
  3. Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan 03
  4. Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done 04
  5. When Is the Time to Act? Now! 05
  6. Digging Deeper 06
  7. About this data 07

People at Risk

Rising population numbers exacerbate potential flooding risk; impacts can be even greater when social vulnerability factors (age, income, capabilities) are involved, as these citizens may not be able to adequately prepare and respond.

View on map for People at Risk: opens the sea level rise layer and population density for Orange County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

1.0%

(32,672 people) of Orange County’s total population lives in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. As is already the case in many parts of the country, these areas are the first to experience impacts.

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Population: 2 ft 32,672, 4 ft 63,422, 6 ft 88,941, 8 ft 110,992, 10 ft 129,267. Aged 65 and over: 2 ft 9,097, 4 ft 19,205, 6 ft 26,635, 8 ft 32,126, 10 ft 36,049. Below the poverty line: 2 ft 1,968, 4 ft 4,383, 6 ft 6,475, 8 ft 8,113, 10 ft 9,386. 0 50k 100k 150k 32,672 Population 9,097 Aged 65 and over 1,968 Below the poverty line
Sea level rise
2 ft

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

Category2 ft4 ft6 ft8 ft10 ft
Population, ocean-connected4,49937,34078,837106,754122,865
Population, including low-lying areas32,67263,42288,941110,992129,267
Aged 65 and over, ocean-connected1,58511,01920,06031,17434,596
Aged 65 and over, including low-lying areas9,09719,20526,63532,12636,049
Below the poverty line, ocean-connected2012,3595,4607,9359,159
Below the poverty line, including low-lying areas1,9684,3836,4758,1139,386
Sources Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024) (2024) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services

Fire and police stations. Hospitals. Shelters. These facilities play a central role in response and recovery. Understanding future exposure can help reduce damages and the conditions that make these services unavailable.

View on map for Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services: opens the sea level rise layer and critical facilities for Orange County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

0.5%

(5 of 981 facilities) of Orange County’s critical facilities are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. These areas are the first to experience impacts.

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Schools (764 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 4 exposed (8 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 15 exposed (15 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 19 exposed (19 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 23 exposed (24 with low-lying areas). Police stations (40 total): 2 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 2 exposed (2 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 3 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 3 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 3 exposed (3 with low-lying areas). Fire stations (142 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (1 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 4 exposed (4 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 5 exposed (5 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 7 exposed (7 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 8 exposed (8 with low-lying areas). Medical facilities (35 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas). 0 200 400 600 3 1 1 0 Number of facilities of each type Schools Police stations Fire stations Medical facilities
Sea level rise
2 ft

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryTotal2 ft exposed4 ft exposed6 ft exposed8 ft exposed10 ft exposed
Schools76404151923
Schools, including low-lying areas76438151924
Police stations4012333
Police stations, including low-lying areas4012333
Fire stations14204578
Fire stations, including low-lying areas14214578
Medical facilities3500000
Medical facilities, including low-lying areas3500000
Sources USGS National Structures Dataset (2026-07-29) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan

Flood-related losses of services, revenues, and salaries can hit a community hard.

View on map for Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan: opens the sea level rise layer and jobs density for Orange County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

0.4%

(6,489 jobs) of Orange County’s jobs are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise.

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Ocean-connected 2,493 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 3,996 jobs. 4 ft: Ocean-connected 10,734 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 3,961 jobs. 6 ft: Ocean-connected 18,913 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 4,931 jobs. 8 ft: Ocean-connected 29,910 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 1,628 jobs. 10 ft: Ocean-connected 36,355 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 1,908 jobs. Total jobs 0 10k 20k 30k 6,489 14,695 23,844 31,538 38,263 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryOcean-connectedAdditional, in low-lying areas
2 ft2,493 jobs3,996 jobs
4 ft10,734 jobs3,961 jobs
6 ft18,913 jobs4,931 jobs
8 ft29,910 jobs1,628 jobs
10 ft36,355 jobs1,908 jobs
Sources LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics (2023) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done

Make it a goal: more natural areas (wetlands, forests, parks, dunes, etc.) to absorb floodwaters and protect the community, and less development in flood-prone areas. Consider not only today’s floodplain, but also the floodplain extent projected for the future.

View on map for Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done: opens the sea level rise layer and natural areas for Orange County in a new tab

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

36.4%

(3.2 of 8.8 square miles) of the land inundated in Orange County at 2 ft of sea level rise would be natural: wetland or upland.

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Wetlands 3 sq mi, Upland 0.2 sq mi, Other 5.6 sq mi. 4 ft: Wetlands 3.4 sq mi, Upland 0.4 sq mi, Other 10.5 sq mi. 6 ft: Wetlands 3.7 sq mi, Upland 0.6 sq mi, Other 15.1 sq mi. 8 ft: Wetlands 3.9 sq mi, Upland 0.8 sq mi, Other 19.4 sq mi. 10 ft: Wetlands 3.9 sq mi, Upland 1 sq mi, Other 23.2 sq mi. % natural 0 5 10 15 20 25 36.4% 26.6% 22.2% 19.5% 17.4%Square miles inundated 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryWetlandsUplandOther
2 ft3 sq mi0.2 sq mi5.6 sq mi
4 ft3.4 sq mi0.4 sq mi10.5 sq mi
6 ft3.7 sq mi0.6 sq mi15.1 sq mi
8 ft3.9 sq mi0.8 sq mi19.4 sq mi
10 ft3.9 sq mi1 sq mi23.2 sq mi
Sources NOAA C-CAP regional land cover (1996–2021) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

When Is the Time to Act? Now!

Because a number of factors are involved, sea level rise projections are often expressed as scenarios. For projects involving structures with a long lifespan or where a loss would be catastrophic (power plants, ports, hospitals), the higher sea level rise scenarios should be considered. For projects with a shorter lifespan (bike paths, golf courses, parks), lower sea level rise scenarios may be appropriate.

Projections at the Los Angeles gauge, by scenario

Feet above 2000, by year

Projected sea level rise at the Los Angeles tide gauge, 2000 to 2150, by scenario Feet of sea level rise above 2000, for the Intermediate, Intermediate-High and High scenarios. The year each increment is reached is in the table. 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft 2 ft Intermediate reaches 2 ft in 2087 Intermediate-High reaches 2 ft in 2069 High reaches 2 ft in 2062
Sea level rise
2 ft

2 ft is reached in:

Intermediate
2087
Intermediate-High
2069
High
2062

Feet above 2000, in 2050 and 2100

Projected sea level rise at the Los Angeles tide gauge in 2050 and 2100, by scenario Feet above 2000. 2050: Intermediate 0.7¤ ft, Intermediate-High 0.9¤ ft, High 1.1 ft. 2100: Intermediate 2.8 ft, Intermediate-High 4.5 ft, High 6.3 ft. 0 2 4 6 8 0.7¤ 0.9¤ 1.1 2050 2.8 4.5 6.3 2100

¤ Under 1 ft, the lowest level the map shows.

Year each increment is reached

Sea level riseIntermediateIntermediate-HighHigh
2 ft208720692062
4 ft212020942082
6 ftafter 215021202098
8 ftafter 2150after 21502114
10 ftafter 2150after 21502136
Sources California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 2 (2024)

Digging Deeper

Go further with Orange County's sea level rise in the atlas's other tools.

See Orange County on the map

Opens the map on the county, highlighted, with the sea level rise layer switched on.

The map shows current data, not this snapshot's.

Compare the flood and sea level rise resources

Explore descriptions fo the different resources available, including those listed in the OPC guidance.

About this data

Data, methods and citation

Snapshot
2026-10-22 · all snapshots
Methodology
Version 1 · what changed
Tide gauge
Los Angeles (OPC 2024, Appendix 2)
Scenarios
Intermediate, Intermediate-High, High

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Recommended citation

California Sea Change Atlas. (2026, October 22). Orange County coastal county profile: Sea level rise. https://seachangeatlas.org/county-profiles/county/orange/2026-10-22/sea-level-rise/

SourcePeriod coveredRetrieved
Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024)20242026-10-22
Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb)20202026-10-22
NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents20262026-10-22
USGS National Structures Dataset2026-07-292026-10-22
LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics20232026-10-22
NOAA C-CAP regional land cover1996-01-01 to 2021-12-312026-10-22
California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 220242026-10-22