CA Sea Change Atlas
CA Sea Change Atlas
County Profiles Marin County
Data as of 2026-10-22

Sea level rise · Marin County, CA

Sea level rise

Visualize sea level rise exposure with this snapshot. Consider incorporating this data into all community planning strategies. In many communities, rising sea levels are already increasing the impacts of high tide flooding and storm surge events.

Projections for the Point Reyes tide gauge, assigned to Marin County · Exposure at 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 ft above MHHW

In this profile

  1. People at Risk 01
  2. Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services 02
  3. Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan 03
  4. Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done 04
  5. When Is the Time to Act? Now! 05
  6. Digging Deeper 06
  7. About this data 07

People at Risk

Rising population numbers exacerbate potential flooding risk; impacts can be even greater when social vulnerability factors (age, income, capabilities) are involved, as these citizens may not be able to adequately prepare and respond.

View on map for People at Risk: opens the sea level rise layer and population density for Marin County in a new tab

10.2%

(26,259 people) of Marin County’s total population lives in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. As is already the case in many parts of the country, these areas are the first to experience impacts.

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Population: 2 ft 26,259, 4 ft 33,538, 6 ft 40,499, 8 ft 46,197, 10 ft 50,410. Aged 65 and over: 2 ft 4,580, 4 ft 6,152, 6 ft 7,759, 8 ft 9,038, 10 ft 9,961. Below the poverty line: 2 ft 3,569, 4 ft 4,319, 6 ft 4,915, 8 ft 5,333, 10 ft 5,695. 0 20k 40k 60k 26,259 Population 4,580 Aged 65 and over 3,569 Below the poverty line
Sea level rise
2 ft

Residents exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

Category2 ft4 ft6 ft8 ft10 ft
Population, ocean-connected8,20032,18539,70046,06850,361
Population, including low-lying areas26,25933,53840,49946,19750,410
Aged 65 and over, ocean-connected2,2315,9027,5679,0069,952
Aged 65 and over, including low-lying areas4,5806,1527,7599,0389,961
Below the poverty line, ocean-connected5394,1304,8485,3215,691
Below the poverty line, including low-lying areas3,5694,3194,9155,3335,695
Sources Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024) (2024) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services

Fire and police stations. Hospitals. Shelters. These facilities play a central role in response and recovery. Understanding future exposure can help reduce damages and the conditions that make these services unavailable.

View on map for Flooded Facilities Can't Provide Critical Services: opens the sea level rise layer and critical facilities for Marin County in a new tab

2.4%

(4 of 166 facilities) of Marin County’s critical facilities are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise. These areas are the first to experience impacts.

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

Schools (104 total): 2 ft 2 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 3 exposed (4 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 10 exposed (10 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 15 exposed (15 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 18 exposed (18 with low-lying areas). Police stations (16 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 3 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 4 exposed (4 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 5 exposed (5 with low-lying areas). Fire stations (42 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (1 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 3 exposed (3 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 7 exposed (8 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 9 exposed (9 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 10 exposed (10 with low-lying areas). Medical facilities (4 total): 2 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 4 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 6 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 8 ft 0 exposed (0 with low-lying areas), 10 ft 1 exposed (1 with low-lying areas). 0 20 40 60 80 100 3 0 1 0 Number of facilities of each type Schools Police stations Fire stations Medical facilities
Sea level rise
2 ft

Facilities exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryTotal2 ft exposed4 ft exposed6 ft exposed8 ft exposed10 ft exposed
Schools10423101518
Schools, including low-lying areas10434101518
Police stations1601345
Police stations, including low-lying areas1601345
Fire stations42037910
Fire stations, including low-lying areas42138910
Medical facilities400001
Medical facilities, including low-lying areas400001
Sources USGS National Structures Dataset (2024-12-11) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan

Flood-related losses of services, revenues, and salaries can hit a community hard.

View on map for Being Underwater Is Not a Good Business Plan: opens the sea level rise layer and jobs density for Marin County in a new tab

17.4%

(19,229 jobs) of Marin County’s jobs are in areas exposed to just 2 ft of sea level rise.

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Ocean-connected 10,241 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 8,988 jobs. 4 ft: Ocean-connected 25,640 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 1,179 jobs. 6 ft: Ocean-connected 34,769 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 1,147 jobs. 8 ft: Ocean-connected 44,070 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 146 jobs. 10 ft: Ocean-connected 49,270 jobs, Additional, in low-lying areas 24 jobs. Total jobs 0 10k 20k 30k 40k 19,229 26,819 35,916 44,216 49,294 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Jobs in areas exposed at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryOcean-connectedAdditional, in low-lying areas
2 ft10,241 jobs8,988 jobs
4 ft25,640 jobs1,179 jobs
6 ft34,769 jobs1,147 jobs
8 ft44,070 jobs146 jobs
10 ft49,270 jobs24 jobs
Sources LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics (2023) Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb) (2020) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done

Make it a goal: more natural areas (wetlands, forests, parks, dunes, etc.) to absorb floodwaters and protect the community, and less development in flood-prone areas. Consider not only today’s floodplain, but also the floodplain extent projected for the future.

View on map for Creating a Better Future: Yes, It Can Be Done: opens the sea level rise layer and natural areas for Marin County in a new tab

54.1%

(13.1 of 24.2 square miles) of the land inundated in Marin County at 2 ft of sea level rise would be natural: wetland or upland.

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise.

2 ft: Wetlands 11.7 sq mi, Upland 1.4 sq mi, Other 11.1 sq mi. 4 ft: Wetlands 12.5 sq mi, Upland 1.9 sq mi, Other 13.7 sq mi. 6 ft: Wetlands 13 sq mi, Upland 2.4 sq mi, Other 16.1 sq mi. 8 ft: Wetlands 13.4 sq mi, Upland 2.9 sq mi, Other 18 sq mi. 10 ft: Wetlands 13.7 sq mi, Upland 3.4 sq mi, Other 19.2 sq mi. % natural 0 10 20 30 54.1% 51.2% 48.9% 47.5% 47.1%Square miles inundated 2 ft 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft

Land cover inundated at each increment of sea level rise: data table

CategoryWetlandsUplandOther
2 ft11.7 sq mi1.4 sq mi11.1 sq mi
4 ft12.5 sq mi1.9 sq mi13.7 sq mi
6 ft13 sq mi2.4 sq mi16.1 sq mi
8 ft13.4 sq mi2.9 sq mi18 sq mi
10 ft13.7 sq mi3.4 sq mi19.2 sq mi
Sources NOAA C-CAP regional land cover (1996–2021) NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents (2026)

When Is the Time to Act? Now!

Because a number of factors are involved, sea level rise projections are often expressed as scenarios. For projects involving structures with a long lifespan or where a loss would be catastrophic (power plants, ports, hospitals), the higher sea level rise scenarios should be considered. For projects with a shorter lifespan (bike paths, golf courses, parks), lower sea level rise scenarios may be appropriate.

Projections at the Point Reyes gauge, by scenario

Feet above 2000, by year

Projected sea level rise at the Point Reyes tide gauge, 2000 to 2150, by scenario Feet of sea level rise above 2000, for the Intermediate, Intermediate-High and High scenarios. The year each increment is reached is in the table. 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 4 ft 6 ft 8 ft 10 ft 2 ft Intermediate reaches 2 ft in 2082 Intermediate-High reaches 2 ft in 2067 High reaches 2 ft in 2060
Sea level rise
2 ft

2 ft is reached in:

Intermediate
2082
Intermediate-High
2067
High
2060

Feet above 2000, in 2050 and 2100

Projected sea level rise at the Point Reyes tide gauge in 2050 and 2100, by scenario Feet above 2000. 2050: Intermediate 0.8¤ ft, Intermediate-High 1.0 ft, High 1.3 ft. 2100: Intermediate 3.1 ft, Intermediate-High 4.8 ft, High 6.6 ft. 0 2 4 6 8 0.8¤ 1.0 1.3 2050 3.1 4.8 6.6 2100

¤ Under 1 ft, the lowest level the map shows.

Year each increment is reached

Sea level riseIntermediateIntermediate-HighHigh
2 ft208220672060
4 ft211320912079
6 ft215021142095
8 ftafter 215021472111
10 ftafter 2150after 21502131
Sources California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 2 (2024)

Digging Deeper

Go further with Marin County's sea level rise in the atlas's other tools.

See Marin County on the map

Opens the map on the county, highlighted, with the sea level rise layer switched on.

Compare the flood and sea level rise resources

Explore descriptions fo the different resources available, including those listed in the OPC guidance.

About this data

Data, methods and citation

Snapshot
2026-10-22 · all snapshots
Methodology
Version 1 · what changed
Tide gauge
Point Reyes (OPC 2024, Appendix 2)
Scenarios
Intermediate, Intermediate-High, High

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Recommended citation

California Sea Change Atlas. (2026, October 22). Marin County coastal county profile: Sea level rise. https://seachangeatlas.org/county-profiles/county/marin/2026-10-22/sea-level-rise/

SourcePeriod coveredRetrieved
Census ACS 5-year estimates (2020–2024)20242026-10-22
Census 2020 tabulation blocks (TIGERweb)20202026-10-22
NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer inundation extents20262026-10-22
USGS National Structures Dataset2024-12-112026-10-22
LEHD LODES8 workplace area characteristics20232026-10-22
NOAA C-CAP regional land cover1996-01-01 to 2021-12-312026-10-22
California Ocean Protection Council, State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance: 2024 Science & Policy Update, Appendix 220242026-10-22